Remember the asteroid discovered back in December that could potentially wipe out entire cities if it collided with Earth?
Well, NASA has now warned that the chances of this asteroid striking our planet in seven years have increased.
While it’s not the most uplifting news to kick off the weekend, there’s no need to panic, yet.
In December, astronomers in Chile discovered an asteroid called ‘2024 YR4’ that was nearly 27 million miles away. The team at NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station, which monitors potential threats, estimated the asteroid’s size to be between 130 and 330 feet (40 to 100 meters) in diameter.
For context, it’s about the same size as the Statue of Liberty, and if it were to hit Earth, it could cause significant damage, potentially wiping out a major city like Kansas City in Missouri, according to Mashable.
However, just over a week ago, experts reassured the public, stating they were “not worried at all” about the asteroid actually colliding with our planet.
Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), clarified that the likelihood of the asteroid hitting Earth was just 1.2%.
“We’re not worried at all because there’s a 99% chance it will miss,” he stated. “But it does deserve attention.”
Asteroid expert David Rankin also reassured the public in an interview with Space.com, emphasizing, “People should absolutely not worry about this yet. The impact probability is still very low.”
However, NASA has now updated its assessment, revealing that the chances of 2024 YR4 striking Earth have more than doubled. The probability of a catastrophic collision is now 2.3%, according to CNEOS.
As of now, 2024 YR4 remains the only large asteroid with a collision probability above 1%, making it a significant object to monitor.
The asteroid is expected to make its closest approach to Earth on December 2, 2032. While the chances of it causing any harm are still low, there’s a small possibility it could hit.
Scientists are optimistic that with more observations in the coming months, they will have a clearer understanding of its trajectory and a better sense of the actual risk.
Dr. Shyam Balaji from King’s College London told the Daily Mail, “As additional observational data is gathered, the probability of impact is expected to decrease.”
“NASA and ESA astronomers are actively refining 2024 YR4’s trajectory, and historical trends show that most objects initially flagged as risks eventually become non-threats.”
However, they must act quickly to monitor it. Dr. Balaji pointed out that the asteroid will become too faint to observe from Earth after April 2025, and won’t be visible again until 2028.
He explained that this makes “it difficult to further refine its trajectory in the short term,” so let’s hope they’re speeding up their observations.
