The probability of a city-destroying asteroid striking Earth is rising at an alarming rate.
The massive asteroid, officially named 2024 YR4, could collide with our planet in just seven years, and if it does, the consequences would be catastrophic.
Initially, NASA estimated the likelihood of impact in 2032 at 1.2 percent. However, in a concerning update, that probability has more than doubled.
Measuring between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters) wide, roughly the size of a soccer field, 2024 YR4 poses a significant threat.
NASA recently raised its estimated impact probability to 2.6 percent, and now, that number has climbed even higher.
As of February 19, the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has risen to 3.1 percent.
While this is concerning, NASA’s Torino Scale currently rates YR4 at Level 3, which falls under the “meriting attention by astronomers” category.
On the scale, Levels 5–7 indicate a “threatening” asteroid, while Levels 8–10 signify a “certain collision.”
According to NASA, asteroids in Level 3 represent “a close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by the public and officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.”
Notably, YR4 was previously classified at Level 0 but has been in Level 3 since February 18.
With its increasing impact probability, YR4 now holds the title of the greatest asteroid threat in NASA’s history, a title once held by the infamous “God of Chaos” asteroid.
Initially, there were concerns that the “God of Chaos” asteroid could strike Earth in 2029, with a 2.7 percent chance of impact. However, NASA has since ruled it out as a threat.
While the latest update on YR4 may seem alarming, there is still a 96.9 percent chance that the so-called “city-destroyer” will not collide with Earth.
Since there is no immediate danger, some scientists view YR4 as an exciting opportunity for research.
“I find 2024 YR4 to be extremely exciting,” said Bryce Bolin, an astronomer at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
“Not only because of its notoriety but for the scientific potential of studying such a small asteroid in high detail,” he explained.
“Only a few asteroids have been studied like this,” Bolin added.
