An expert has shared the potential consequences if the “city-destroying” asteroid 2024 YR4 were to strike the Moon rather than Earth.
Earlier this month, NASA scientists raised the probability of a collision between the asteroid and our planet from 1.2 percent to 2.3 percent.
Experts predict the asteroid could potentially crash into Earth on December 22, 2032.
Reports indicate that the asteroid may be as large as the Statue of Liberty, which makes it crucial for scientists to carefully consider how best to address the situation.
Scientists have now raised the possibility that asteroid 2024 YR4 could collide with the Moon instead of Earth.
David Rankin, an operations engineer for the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, has stated that there’s a 0.3 percent chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon. However, if that unlikely event were to occur, its impact on Earth would be minimal.
“There’s a chance that some material could be ejected from the Moon and reach Earth, but I highly doubt it would pose any significant threat,” Rankin told New Scientist.
Gareth Collins from Imperial College London further explained, “We’d be quite safe on Earth. Some small fragments might reach Earth, but they would be harmless.”
These fragments would burn up upon entering the Earth’s atmosphere, causing no harm to us.
Meanwhile, Dr. Robin George Andrews previously cautioned that even attempts to shield ourselves from the asteroid’s impact could have unintended consequences.
On Twitter, Dr. Robin George Andrews referenced the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), a mission designed to explore one method of deflecting an asteroid by altering its motion in space through kinetic impact.
“Nobody wants to accidentally ‘disrupt’ an asteroid, because those fragments could still end up heading for Earth. It’s like turning a cannonball into a shotgun spray,” Andrews explained.
He continued, “But we won’t see the asteroid again until another Earth flyby in 2028. A lot could go wrong if we attempt to deflect it with something like DART.”
He noted that the asteroid might be either smaller or larger than expected. “If it’s too big, we might not be able to deflect it with just one spacecraft. We would need multiple spacecraft hitting it precisely, all without causing it to break apart catastrophically.”
Regarding the potential impact zone, Rankin outlined a “risk corridor” where the asteroid could strike Earth. The predicted impact area spans northern South America, across the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and parts of Africa.
This means countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador could face the brunt of the impact.
