NASA has officially increased the probability of the ‘city-destroying’ asteroid colliding with Earth in just seven years.
Scientists warn that Asteroid 2024 YR4 could impact the planet on December 22, 2032, with potentially devastating consequences.
Reports indicate the asteroid could be as large as the Statue of Liberty, making it a significant concern for researchers as they assess the best course of action.
As for potential impact locations, David Rankin, an operations engineer for the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, predicts it could strike anywhere from northern South America, across the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, or Africa.
This means countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador could face the worst of the impact.
Now that scientists have identified potential impact zones, the pressing question remains, how likely is Asteroid 2024 YR4 to collide with Earth in 2032?
The chances appear to be rising each week.
Earlier this month, NASA increased the probability from 1.2% to 2.3%. Now, the space agency has quietly adjusted the likelihood again, raising it to 2.6%, a 1-in-38 chance.
NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies has ranked the asteroid at a three on the Torino Scale, which measures both the likelihood of an impact and the potential danger it poses, according to The Independent.
For context, a 10 on the scale would indicate a catastrophic global event, similar to the asteroid that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs.
Interestingly, there’s also a 0.3% chance that the asteroid could strike the Moon instead.
If the asteroid were to collide with the Moon, an unlikely scenario, the impact on Earth would be minimal.
“There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat,” David Rankin told New Scientist.
Gareth Collins of Imperial College London echoed this sentiment, reassuring that “we would be quite safe on Earth. Some small ejecta fragments might reach Earth, but [they would be] totally harmless.”
According to experts, these fragments would burn up in the atmosphere, posing no real danger to our planet.
Meanwhile, NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is being utilized to study asteroid deflection techniques. The project aims to assess how kinetic impact could alter an asteroid’s trajectory, helping scientists prepare for any future threats.
