A simulation video has revealed the potential consequences if the unlikely scenario of asteroid ‘2024 YR4’ colliding with Earth becomes reality.
In December last year, NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile detected the asteroid using advanced telescopes.
Although the probability of impact in 2032 remains low, NASA is closely monitoring the asteroid due to the potential devastation it could cause. But what if it isn’t stopped?
The Threat at Hand
According to NASA’s Planetary Defense, asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet across.
To visualize the possible impact, specialist 3D animator Alvaro Gracias Montoya, known as MetaBallStudios, created an animated simulation demonstrating the potential destruction.
The Animation
To put it simply, it wouldn’t be good.
The simulation illustrates that if the asteroid were to strike Earth, it could devastate an area the size of Washington, D.C., unleashing energy equivalent to eight megatons, 500 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
Fortunately, the chances of this happening are extremely low. Even Montoya acknowledged, “I don’t think it’s going to happen, but certainly, this kind of news generates a lot of speculation.”
Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hitting Earth
As of January, experts estimated the asteroid’s impact probability at 1.2%, a figure not particularly alarming. However, Sky News now reports that the chance has increased to 2.3%.
NASA’s Planetary Defense has assured that it will continue monitoring the asteroid, stating:
“Ongoing observations from ground-based telescopes involved with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue while the asteroid is still visible through April. After that, it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028.”
Additionally, NASA confirmed that the James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March 2025 to refine estimates of its size.
NASA concluded:
“It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects previously listed on NASA’s asteroid risk list. However, its impact probability could also continue to rise. The latest data will remain available via NASA’s automated Sentry page.”
