A massive asteroid with the potential to devastate Earth has had its possible collision path revealed.
While doomsday predictions often make headlines, this one is particularly alarming.
Dubbed ‘2024 YR4,’ the space rock, discovered in December is estimated to be the size of the Statue of Liberty, making it a serious threat.
Scientist Dr. Robin George Andrews has cautioned that even attempts to deflect the asteroid, such as firing rockets to alter its trajectory, could backfire and trigger catastrophic consequences.
Andrews referenced the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), a pioneering mission designed to change an asteroid’s trajectory through kinetic impact. While the mission was a success, he warned that this method isn’t a guaranteed fix for every potential threat.
He explained, “Nobody wants to accidentally ‘disrupt’ an asteroid, because those components can still head for Earth. As I often say, it’s like turning a cannonball into a shotgun spray.”
The asteroid, 2024 YR4, isn’t expected to pass by Earth again until 2028, leaving a limited window for potential intervention.
Andrews cautioned, “It may be smaller, or larger. If it’s too big, we may not be able to deflect it with one spacecraft. We’d need several to hit it perfectly, all without catastrophically breaking it.”
He also warned of the risks of miscalculated deflection efforts: “With only a few years left, we could accidentally deflect it, but not enough to make it miss Earth entirely. Then, it still hits, just in a different location.”
Andrews speculated on possible deflection strategies, saying, “Maybe 2024 YR4’s odds will rise, and we will successfully deflect it in 2028 using a monster-sized spacecraft. Or maybe we’ll break an awkward taboo and instead opt to use a nuclear warhead to try to deflect it, which would provide a bigger punch to the asteroid than DART.”
However, he ultimately suggested that evacuation might be the best option.
NASA engineer David Rankin, from the Catalina Sky Survey Project, has mapped out a risk corridor, identifying potential impact zones. The asteroid could collide anywhere from northern South America, across the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa.
This means countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador could be at the highest risk.
Astronomers predict that if 2024 YR4 enters Earth’s atmosphere, it would likely explode mid-air with the force of approximately 8 million tons of TNT, devastating a 50-kilometer radius.
To refine impact estimates, NASA has assigned an international team of astronomers to analyze 2024 YR4 using the James Webb Space Telescope, allowing for a more precise understanding of its dimensions and potential impact.
Disturbingly, NASA predicts that the asteroid has a one-in-43 chance of colliding with Earth in 2032.
